Monday, 2 February 2026
Australia’s road construction boom may have passed its high point, but workforce pressures are far from over, with new Austroads analysis revealing a more uneven and complex skills outlook across the sector.
Updated workforce modelling shows that while national road activity in Australia peaked in FY24 and is now moderating, capability gaps are still expected to emerge in several jurisdictions as project timelines, labour mobility and competition from other sectors reshape demand for skilled workers.
From shortages to shifting pressure points
When Austroads first released its Roads Capability Analysis in 2023, the focus was on looming skills shortages as road construction and maintenance activity gathered pace across Australia and New Zealand. At the time, jurisdictions including New South Wales, New Zealand and the Australian Capital Territory were projected to face workforce capability gaps as demand outstripped supply.
That picture has now evolved.
With major Australian road projects moving through peak delivery, the latest modelling suggests the national public road construction workforce is likely to move into a modest skills surplus over the next three years. Over the longer term, this surplus is expected to widen as labour demand gradually softens and workforce inflows from education and skilled migration continue.
However, the easing of aggregate shortages does not signal an end to workforce risk.
“Passing the construction peak doesn’t mean workforce challenges disappear,” Austroads Chief Executive Geoff Allan said.
“What the analysis shows is a shift in where the pressure sits. Some jurisdictions are moving into surplus, while others are still facing capability gaps – particularly in specialist and experienced roles.”
Uneven conditions across jurisdictions
The analysis highlights that capability gaps are projected to emerge in New Zealand, Queensland, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory within the next one to six years, reflecting differences in project pipelines, workforce mobility and regional labour supply.
In New Zealand, road activity is expected to peak in FY26, driven in part by elevated maintenance programs and strategic road investment. A small capability shortfall in the public roads workforce is projected in that year, before conditions ease and a labour surplus emerges from FY27 onwards as activity moderates.
In Australia, despite an overall easing in national pressure, competition from other infrastructure sectors – including energy, utilities and rail – is expected to continue drawing on similar skill sets, creating ongoing challenges for agencies seeking to retain experienced staff.
“This is no longer a simple story of shortages or surpluses,” said Geoff.
“It’s about timing, location and skills mix. Agencies still need to be proactive in holding on to capability, especially when skilled workers have options across multiple sectors.”
Planning beyond the peak
The analysis also reinforces that projected workforce surpluses are theoretical, and may not be visible in practice if skilled workers exit the roads sector for competing opportunities.
Sustained investment in workforce planning, education pathways, productivity improvements and retention strategies remains critical to ensuring agencies can deliver road programs efficiently as the investment cycle matures.
Further information
These findings are detailed in the Australia and New Zealand Roads Capability Analysis 2025–2035 report, prepared for Austroads by Oxford Economics Australia. The update incorporates the latest labour market data, government budgets, and education and migration trends, and concludes a series of half‑yearly quantitative updates to the Roads Capability Analysis first released in 2023.
Updated interactive Tableau dashboards are also available to support workforce planning and cross‑jurisdictional coordination.